On Friday, November 22, 2024, the UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. HookerABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar will ignite the UFC’s international calendar with a card brimming with title implications — and one of the most lopsided betting lines of the year. At the center of it all: Arman Tsarukyan, the 29-year-old Georgian phenom with a 22-3 record and a 64% finishing rate, taking on the relentless Dan Hooker, 35, the 24-12 Kiwi veteran who’s spent months publicly campaigning for this exact matchup. DraftKings lists Tsarukyan as a massive -650 favorite; Hooker, at +470, is the kind of underdog that makes gamblers lean in — even when the odds seem absurd.
Why This Fight Matters More Than the Odds Suggest
It’s not just about who wins. It’s about who gets next in line for the UFC lightweight title, currently held by Ilia Topuria. Tsarukyan enters on a four-fight win streak, each victory more dominant than the last. He’s technical, explosive, and carries a wrestling base that’s improved dramatically since his early UFC days. Hooker? He’s the ultimate grinder — a man who’s lost more fights than he’s won in the UFC, yet keeps showing up, keeps talking, keeps believing. He’s not chasing rankings; he’s chasing legacy.
"Hooker believes Tsarukyan is the most skilled lightweight fighter, even greater than champion Topuria," ESPN reported. That’s not just hype — it’s a strategic declaration. If Hooker pulls off the upset, he doesn’t just jump the queue. He rewrites the narrative. But the numbers tell a different story. Tsarukyan’s reach advantage (72.5” vs. 75”) is minimal, but his grappling pedigree — and his ability to close distance — gives him the edge. BetMGM analysts predict a unanimous decision, citing Tsarukyan’s ability to take Hooker down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground. Parker from ESPN adds: "Don’t be surprised if he wins inside the distance. Hooker is durable, but Tsarukyan has the power and pace to break him down."
The Co-Main: Muhammad vs. Garry — Wrestling vs. Youth
While the main event draws headlines, the co-main between Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry could be the sleeper that reshapes the welterweight hierarchy. Muhammad, the former champion, is 36 and fighting to reclaim relevance after back-to-back losses. Garry, 24, is the next wave — fast, athletic, and dangerous with his striking.
Odds favor Garry at -270, but don’t count out Muhammad’s grit. Din Thomas, a former UFC fighter turned analyst, sees it differently: "I’m going with Belal because of his work ethic and determination. He’ll grind Garry out, get close, avoid the big shots, and win two rounds on control." Parker agrees, noting: "This comes down to whether Muhammad can get the fight to the ground. Garry doesn’t offer submission threats from his back — and that’s his weakness."
Flyweight Fireworks: Almabayev vs. Perez
One of the most intriguing matchups on the card is the flyweight clash between Asu Almabayev and Alex Perez. Perez, returning from a year-long layoff after a knee injury, is a high-volume striker with 4.19 significant strikes per minute and elite 77% takedown defense. Almabayev? He’s a takedown machine — averaging 4.66 per fight — and absorbs just 1.75 strikes per minute, a testament to his defensive awareness.
The Body Lock notes: "Most predictions favor Almabayev by unanimous decision." The over/under for rounds is set at 2.5, with odds at -168 on the fight going the distance. That’s telling. Neither fighter is known for one-punch finishes. This will be chess, not fireworks. And if Almabayev controls the pace, he could vault into the top five.
Other Key Matchups and Betting Trends
The light heavyweight bout between Volkan Oezdemir and Alonzo Menifield carries weight. Oezdemir, 34, hasn’t fought in a year. Menifield, 31, has lost his last two fights against top-tier competition — both by first-round knockout. RotoWire’s take: "Menifield is stepping up again — and the last two times, he got finished early." Parker’s betting advice? "Under 2.5 rounds (-154)."
At flyweight, veteran Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5) faces rising star Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2). Horiguchi’s experience and technical striking make him a tempting +180 underdog. RotoWire calls it a "must-play" for bettors: "It’ll be close, but Horiguchi’s cage IQ and timing will edge it."
What’s at Stake Beyond the Octagon
This isn’t just another UFC event in a foreign country. It’s a statement. Qatar continues to position itself as a global hub for combat sports — following the success of boxing’s Fury vs. Usyk and the upcoming FIFA World Cup. The UFC’s presence here signals a long-term commitment to the Middle East market, with more events likely on the horizon.
For fighters, it’s about legacy. For fans, it’s about witnessing history. Tsarukyan could cement himself as the next champion. Hooker could prove that heart still trumps hype. Muhammad could resurrect a career. Garry could announce himself as the future. And in a sport where fortunes change in seconds, that’s what makes this night unforgettable.
How to Watch
The main card begins at 1 p.m. Eastern Time on November 22, 2024, exclusively on ESPN+. Prelims stream on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass. No cable subscription required — just a streaming account and a front-row seat to the drama.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Tsarukyan such a heavy favorite against Hooker?
Tsarukyan’s recent dominance — four straight wins, elite wrestling, and improved striking — contrasts sharply with Hooker’s inconsistent record and recent losses to top contenders. Analysts see Tsarukyan’s grappling as the perfect counter to Hooker’s striking-heavy style. His 64% finishing rate and ability to control pace make him a near-lock to win, even if Hooker’s toughness keeps it competitive.
Can Dan Hooker still compete at the elite level?
Absolutely — but only if he’s fighting the right opponent. Hooker’s career has been defined by resilience. He’s beaten top-10 fighters like Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush. His problem isn’t skill — it’s consistency. Against Tsarukyan, he’s facing a fighter who doesn’t make the same mistakes as others. If Hooker lands early and keeps distance, he has a chance. But Tsarukyan’s pressure may be too much.
What does this mean for Belal Muhammad’s title hopes?
A win over Garry doesn’t guarantee a title shot — but it puts Muhammad back in the conversation. With Michael Morales and Carlos Prates recently knocking out top contenders, the welterweight division is wide open. Muhammad needs a decisive victory — ideally by submission or TKO — to show he’s still elite. A decision win might not be enough, given the rising talent around him.
Why is UFC holding events in Qatar?
Qatar has invested heavily in global sports branding, hosting the FIFA World Cup and major boxing matches. The UFC sees it as a strategic gateway to the Middle East and Asian markets. With fewer restrictions on international events and strong government backing, Doha offers a neutral, high-profile stage. Expect more UFC events here — possibly even a UFC title fight in the next two years.
Is Kyoji Horiguchi still a threat in the flyweight division?
Yes — and that’s why he’s a +180 underdog worth betting on. At 37, Horiguchi is past his prime, but his technical striking, fight IQ, and experience against elite opponents like Dominick Cruz and Takeya Mizugaki make him dangerous. Ulanbekov is powerful, but Horiguchi’s ability to counter and control range could steal the decision. He’s not winning by knockout — but he’s still winning fights.
How does the Almabayev vs. Perez matchup compare to other flyweight fights?
It’s one of the most stylistically balanced fights on the card. Almabayev’s takedown volume (4.66 per fight) is among the highest in the division, while Perez’s takedown defense (77%) is elite. This isn’t a brawl — it’s a chess match. The over/under at 2.5 rounds with -168 odds on going the distance shows oddsmakers expect a tactical battle. Whoever controls the center and avoids damage will win.
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